AI Inflection: The Sovereign Exit#

The Last Year Before AI Lock-In

By Malte Wagenbach

The Crisis No One’s Talking About#

87% of banks now use 3 AI models for credit decisions. One earthquake in Taiwan shuts down all AI hardware production. 40,000 children mine cobalt for “green” batteries.

By 2027, three crises converge:

1. Energy grids cannot power exponential AI growth (12x compute density in 36 months, but grid upgrades take 5-10 years)
2. Financial algorithms homogenize into millisecond cascade risk (2008 VaR crisis, but at AI speed with no circuit breakers)
3. Automated exclusion via algorithmic compliance (de-banking with no accountability, no recourse, no alternative)

This is not speculation. This is measurement.

The Distributed Alternative (That Actually Works)#

Regenerative agriculture: 198% higher profit margins than conventional farming ($526 vs $176/acre)

Microgrids: 30-second recovery vs 24-hour centralized grid paralysis

Circular supply chains: $310M in savings, immune to COVID-19 disruptions

These aren’t utopian visions. They’re operational realities with hard financial data.

The 2027 Window#

After 2027, sunk costs, data gravity, and regulatory lag make alternatives impossible until crisis forces transition.

By then, it’s too late.

Start Here#

📖 Read the Foreword — Why this matters now

📊 10 Stats That Prove We’re Building the Wrong Infrastructure — Share these

⏰ The 2027 Timeline: When Three Crises Converge — Month by month

⚖️ The Accountability Gap: Who’s Liable When AI Fails? — The question no one can answer

🛠️ Action Guide: Building Sovereign Exit Now — What you can do

📋 Executive Summary — The integrated case in 6 parts

The Full Analysis#

Part 1: The AI Trap

• The 2027 Cluster
• The 2008 VaR Model Replay
• The New Redlining
• The Biophysical Trap
• The Accountability Gap

Part 2: The Solution Stack

• The Great Unwinding
• The Island
• The Throwaway Society

Part 3: The Fragility Matrix

• The Fragility Matrix
• 10 Stats That Prove We’re Building the Wrong Infrastructure
• Deep Dive: Material Dependencies & Supply Chain Chokepoints

Part 4: Strategic Implications

• The Unseen Battlefield
• Digital Colonialism
• The 2027 Window
• The 2027 Timeline: When Three Crises Converge

Part 5: Policy Framework

• The National Infrastructure Resilience Act
• The Agricultural Supply Chain Independence Act
• The Financial Infrastructure Decentralization Act
• The Manufacturing Localization Incentives Act
• The Economic Data Localization & Sovereignty Act

Part 6: Implementation

• Action Guide: Building Sovereign Exit Now

Supporting Research & Case Studies

• The Islands of the Future
• The Soil Revolution
• The Industrial Ecosystem

Additional Resources

• People Shaping the Convergence — The thinkers, builders, and researchers whose work informs this book